Risk outlook for 2024 – key takeaways

Board members and executives from PE firms and PE-owned companies rate as their top risk concerns in the coming year economic conditions, including inflationary pressures; their ability to attract, develop and retain top talent, manage shifts in labor expectations, and address succession challenges; changes in the interest rate environment; third-party risks; and data privacy.

As our top 10 risks table shows, talent, data security and privacy, and IT-related risks represent widespread concerns. In addition to attracting and retaining talent, PE leaders view skills constraints as an obstacle to adopting artificial intelligence applications and other new digital technologies. PE respondents also raise questions about the ways in which work environment (and location) changes may negatively affect organisational culture.

While cyber threats understandably rate as a top 10 risk issue, PE respondents also identify data privacy and compliance with expanding identity protection expectations as a concern. The fact that third-party risks qualify as a top five issue underscores a heightened focus on cybersecurity given that a large and growing portion of vendor risk relates directly to the quality of third- and fourth-party cybersecurity capabilities. As the technical sophistication of cyber threats continues to advance this year, and certainly over the coming decade, portfolio companies and their third parties should prepare for the near certainty that their cyber defenses will be breached at some point.

Modernising legacy IT systems also represents a common, costly and crucial priority within PE-owned companies, and respondents express concerns that a failure to do so will hinder the organisation’s ability to meet performance objectives while competing against more agile, “born digital” competitors. Core modernisation is also an important enabler of an advanced data analytics capability.

Overview of top risk issues in 2034

In their outlook for the next decade, last year’s respondents identified organisational culture, pandemic-driven workplace adjustments and supply chain disruptions as their top long-term risk issues. Many of those concerns appear to have abated in the past 12 months. This year, respondents have a notably different set of long-term concerns, with fairly minimal crossover.

PE board members and executives identify cyber threats, the rapid speed of disruptive innovation fueled by emerging technologies, third-party risks, new competitors, and heightened regulatory changes and scrutiny (especially requirements related to climate policies and disclosures) as their top risk issues for the next decade (into 2034). Regulatory concerns make sense given the sweeping climate disclosure requirements that have materialised in the past 12 months, such as the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), as well as pending climate disclosure requirements from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for public companies in the United States. Such developments in these and other jurisdictions seem likely to continue in the decade ahead – and they likely will impact organisations beyond these regions. For example, while relatively few PE-owned companies have direct CSRD compliance obligations, many will be compelled to provide detailed CSRD reports in response to trading partners’ requests (as part of the CSRD’s double materiality assessments).

As was the case last year, PE respondents also indicate that several aspects of talent management will loom large as 2034 risk challenges. The ability to attract and retain top talent (especially those with digital skills), manage fluctuations in labor expectations and fortify succession planning rates second on the list of top risks for 2034 (as well as for the coming year). Board members and executives in PE firms and portfolio companies also view increasing labor costs as a long-term challenge – this issue ranks in the top five for 2034.

Cyber threats understandably rate as the highest 2034 risk issue. Economic conditions, including inflationary pressures, are not far behind.

In closing

Throughout 2023, after more than a decade of low financing costs, PE firms and portfolio companies confronted an environment of high interest rates and other economic headwinds that forced boards and C-suite leaders to make major adjustments to how they secured credit, deployed earn-out clauses and expanded into other asset classes. These leadership teams also made extensive changes to their risk management priorities. Their views of the risk landscape for 2024 and the next decade indicate they see continued uncertainty in the market, coupled with threats related to cybersecurity, talent and emerging technologies, that will create ongoing challenges.

About the Executive Perspectives on Top Risks Survey

We surveyed 1,143 board members and executives across a number of industries and from around the globe, asking them to assess the impact of 36 unique risks on their organisation over the next 12 months and over the next decade. Our survey was conducted in September and October 2023. Respondents rated the impact of each risk on their organisation using a 10-point scale, where 1 reflects “No Impact at All” and 10 reflects “Extensive Impact.” For each of the 36 risks, we computed the average score reported by all respondents and rank-ordered the risks from highest to lowest impact.

Read our Executive Perspectives on Top Risks Survey executive summary and full report below.