Modelling a Pandemic: Projecting Covid-19 Cases in India (An Analytical Approach)

In an attempt to understand how COVID-19 will impact India, Protiviti and Times Network, the premium broadcaster and part of The Times Group, came together to project the path of the pandemic in the country.

The white paper prepared by our data analytics team tries to look at the trajectory of the COVID 19 outbreak as an epidemiological event though various times series and pandemic models developed for prior epidemics, however tailored and advanced for COVID 19 scenarios.

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We have achieved a prediction accuracy level of 96% modelling active cases.

• COVID-19 is a rapidly changing pandemic with complex parameters which impact its growth and spread
• Our data science team has used statistical models and complex algorithm to predict the number of active COVID-19 cases
• We have achieved prediction accuracy level of 96% (active cases) with an overall prediction level of 92%+
• We have been able to improve the accuracy of predictive analytics through continuous refinement of the analytical model